According to Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC SEC (HK: 06030) and Citic Securities Company Limited (SH: 600030) released a research report stating that, with US stocks decoupling from interest rates during China's long holiday, investor focus will shift next week to the upcoming US third-quarter earnings season.

LSEG consensus estimates show that the S&P 500's 26Q3 revenue and earnings growth rates are expected to reach 1.2% and 45.0% year-on-year respectively, retreating from the previous quarter.

At the industry level, earnings growth in energy, information technology, materials, and healthcare all exceed 50% year-on-year, suggesting that the high earnings growth of US stocks may no longer be concentrated solely in leading tech companies, with earnings contributions from non-tech sectors clearly strengthening.

For Hong Kong stocks, although the overseas rate hike cycle combined with renewed AI momentum trading continues to weigh on liquidity, fundamental expectations have already bottomed out, and the earnings growth expectations for major broad-based indices have begun to be revised upward.

Industry earnings expectation adjustments show significant divergence, with some niche segments seeing upward revisions, while earnings expectations for domestically demand-related industries still face downward revision pressure. The upcoming third-quarter results will be an important basis for judging the progress of recovery.

Investors are advised to maintain patience with Hong Kong stocks, and it is expected that the dividend strategy will continue to relatively outperform in the short term.

The main views of CITIC Securities are as follows:

2026Q3 US earnings may continue high growth, with growth momentum spreading from tech giants to broader industries

According to LSEG consensus estimates, the S&P 500's Q3 revenue and earnings year-on-year growth expectations are 11.2% and 45.0% respectively, while the Nasdaq 100's are 22.9% and 45.2%.

From a structural perspective, the MAG 8's Q3 revenue and earnings year-on-year growth expectations are 24.3% and 41.4% respectively. Excluding the MAG 8, the remaining 492 constituents of the S&P 500 have revenue and earnings year-on-year growth rates of 8.8% and 50.0% respectively, with the earnings growth rate significantly rising from 32.9% in Q2.

At the industry level, earnings growth in energy, information technology, materials, and healthcare all exceed 50% year-on-year, with energy and information technology leading the growth.

The high earnings growth of US stocks in 2026Q3 may no longer be concentrated in leading tech companies, and the earnings contribution from non-tech sectors is clearly strengthening.

Full-year 2026 US earnings expectations continue to be revised upward, with marginal improvement coming more from non-tech giants, further balancing the structure of earnings growth

As of October 9, the S&P 500's full-year earnings growth expectation rose to 34.9%, revised up 1.2 percentage points from the end of August; the Nasdaq 100's earnings growth expectation rose to 53.3%.

During the same period, the MAG 8's earnings growth expectation remained at a high of 57.5%, but was slightly revised down 0.2 percentage points from the end of August. Excluding the MAG 8, the remaining 492 constituents of the S&P 500 saw their earnings growth expectation rise to 26.5%, revised up 1.7 percentage points from the end of August, a more significant upward revision.

Among sub-sectors, energy saw the most notable upward revision in earnings expectations, while revenue expectations for tech hardware and semiconductors improved simultaneously, potentially indicating that US earnings upward revisions have gradually spread from leading tech stocks to cyclical and manufacturing chains. The degree of Q4 earnings delivery and 2027 earnings guidance will become key focuses for the market going forward.

Overseas rate hike cycle combined with renewed AI momentum trading continues to weigh on Hong Kong stock liquidity

The derivatives market has already fairly fully reflected expectations of continued rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank.

Among them, market-implied expectations show that the Federal Reserve may still hike rates three more times by June next year. However, as concerns over sovereign credit in overseas developed countries further intensify, overseas risk-free rates may still have room to continue rising.

The calculated comprehensive discount rate for Hong Kong stocks has risen from 3.1% at the end of February this year to 3.9% in early October, continuously suppressing Hong Kong stock valuations.

The strengthening of the overseas AI industry trend may drive funds to further concentrate in related markets, and the pace of southbound capital inflows is an important variable for alleviating liquidity pressure on Hong Kong stocks.

If the RMB exchange rate gradually stabilizes going forward and drives accelerated southbound capital inflows, the liquidity pressure on Hong Kong stocks is expected to ease.

Hong Kong stock fundamental expectations have entered a bottoming stage, with earnings growth expectations for major broad-based indices beginning to be revised upward, and structural improvement after interim reports providing support for market stabilization

Industry earnings expectation adjustments show significant divergence, with some niche segments seeing upward revisions, while earnings expectations for domestically demand-related industries still face downward revision pressure. The upcoming third-quarter results will be an important basis for judging the progress of recovery.

After two consecutive months of correction, the valuation attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks is gradually emerging.

If a series of new domestic property policies can improve residents' wealth expectations and drive a recovery in domestic demand, the Hong Kong stock market is favored to see a "earnings + valuation" double boost in the fourth quarter of this year.

However, in the short term, the fundamental turning point for the large consumer sector still needs to be verified. Combined with high overseas risk-free rates and renewed AI momentum trading, investors are advised to maintain patience with Hong Kong stocks, and it is expected that the dividend strategy will continue to relatively outperform in the short term.

If Hong Kong growth and consumer sectors continue to adjust in October and the third-quarter earnings turning point is confirmed, better allocation opportunities may emerge before the MSCI quarterly rebalancing in late November.

Risk factors: 1) Global central banks tightening monetary policy beyond expectations; 2) Further escalation of global geopolitical conflicts; 3) Intensified friction between China and the US in technology, trade, and finance; 4) China's policy strength, implementation effects, or economic recovery falling short of expectations.